← DX Store Champion Main Event
Horse and TaxesTier 2
at DX Store Champion Main Event
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1410
· range 1284–1460
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1210
Q3 1366
1491
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 28.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
